Friday, January 16, 2004

Bremer is at washington discussing the authorities hand over to Iraqis.


… And the winner is:


Yes = hmmm.. you baathist pro saddamist bastard .. arrest him
No = OK! Here we have another evidence how much the Iraqi people want us to stay

I remember the days before the war when people from the national-but-corrupted-and-arrogant-government were using the same smart propaganda to justify their loyalty to saddam, “a civil war will start, no one can control this country, even if he isn’t the best person in the world at least he is keeping the situation stable”
The same excuse was given today, by Iraqis demonstrating at Basra.
Americans were supposed to hand over [some] authorities for Iraqis next June, and discussions were about how and where and other details, this was announced after months of playing the [try & screw-up] game. The political hand-over was supposed to happen in the middle of this year, but the thing/government was not going to be elected, it was supposed to be [s-elected], preparing for the general elections in two years.

I have no doubts that Americans want to stay as long as they can in the current status, and I don’t have any doubts “they” will try to use any excuse that can be found.

Tens of thousands of Iraqis demonstrated at Basra - the new shiaa capital – today. But why?
It was because of the new speech/fatwa of Ayat-Allah Sistani about the form of the next government..
Sistani is one from the key personalities in the “new” Iraq, (in fact he’s one of the few leaders that used to live in Iraq before the war), he really controls millions of shiaa in the south and they really believe in him. Americans treat him as a local god, giving him enormous self confidence and image.
Sistani refuses to accept the “elected government” phase,, he wants to jump to the “general elections” stage without the intermediate one.
Why? Because he doesn’t feel safe! Because he believes Americans are giving him what he wants.
Sistani doesn’t feel very safe having an ethnic-mixture-[american-free] government for the next two years, (not very safe to go through all the discussions and crap of convincing dozens of representatives of different ethnic and religious groups that may domain the political scene in the time that he can control everything by himself and have more respectful position during the presence of Americans or after the general elections will take place).

But why would a person like him give Americans a fashionable excuse for staying for another two years?
Because they built up the scene this way, give him over-doze attention and care, and thretin to go and leave him over a night, he will start begging for them to stay and this is the way Americans want to draw the right image for their existence in Iraq.

People are repeating the same “we don’t want a civil war” advertisement to justify the Sistani new position.
But why?
-Does a person like him have an M.O.U with the Americans? I don’t think so, it’s more sophisticated than that.
-Are Americans happy because of his position? YES, at least till now.
-Are Americans considering this as a favor? NO, I doubt it. They don’t have favors and permanent friends, they have permanent interests :”)
-Do Americans realize they are playing with fire or not? I don’t think they do
-When is the time Sistani gets impatient? Soon .. when he believes the VIP tale

Joke of the day – extremely related to the VIP story
There is this Iraqi guy that went to a coffee shop and found it full, so he decided to come up with a smart idea to find an empty chair. He stood in front of every one and yelled “they are distributing free gasoline outside”! so everyone rushed outside, and he found a place and sat down. Five minutes later .. he thinks “maybe its true” and hurries out running after them.

From an American-practical point of view, Iraq is not ready neither technically nor politically to start a general election battle, we are talking about a country that could not re-build the services billing system until now.

Fun fact: Iraqis didn’t pay a Dinar for (the so-called) electricity, water, telecommunication stuff and other public services for the last 10 months .. not because Americans are trying to build a new communist era, its because of the lack of capabilities of issuing bills!!

I mean .. we are speaking about basics here .. stupid small problems like traffic jams seem to be huge enough to be considered as a challenge for the GC, so what do u expect to get when issues like general elections are discussed?
Otherwise.. and from a political position, let’s suppose this technical problem isn’t that big, americans will not give the chance for the situation to go outside control and repeat the Algerian catastrophe, when the so-called [democratic general elections] will end up creating a new religious monster that might not be western-friendly.
The same way that I was sure americans will not give saddam hussein a free passion_inflaming_channel by starting a public trial show, I can say I’m positive Americans will not give Iraq neither as a shiaa present to Iran or a sunni present to Saudi Arabia, general elections cannot even be discussed before Iraqis finish their cultural and political lessons. Teach them the neo-Islamic theory: Secular Islam(?).
Would it end up causing a mess?
Would the impact cause extremely right winged groups?
Would these “outsiders” putting more and more pressure to change the socio-cultural-religious common beliefs be accepted?

Ok .. I’m trying to be pragmatic and rational without forgetting the national context and sense, I can understand that when Americans come to occupy a country, they will rebuild it in their way, so issues like privatization, capitalism, federalism, open market policy, open telecommunication system come in one package that I don’t see a point even in discussing their presence or not, it’s stupid to feel surprised every time a topic of these pops-up, but its not stupid at all to discuss the methods and ways of reaching to those main goals, sometimes methodologies are more harmful than the goals themselves.

Confusion is the keyword here..

I know the American army is not leaving Iraq in years, and I know American decision makers will not leave in decades, I mean .. just let them announce that!
Do u know that the American embassy in Baghdad will have more than 3000 “diplomats” working?? They ARE the next government .. no doubt ..
Just announce it for god’s sake.. announce that and let’s play a clean game.
Why must we go through all of this Iraq-tearing-up-process? Federalism, Shiaa, Sunnis, Turkmen, Kurds, Assyrians, blab la blaa, picking a weak dependant governing council, with no roots, and threatening to leave after a year .. of course they’ll start whining and begging for the devil to stay.

Why didn’t anyone ask us whether we wanted the war or not? Whether we felt comfortable with the GC or not? Why no one asks if the game of jumping from a plan to another with no vision is amusing or not?
But everyone comes now and ask .. do u want “them” to leave or stay?

There is an Arabic proverb saying: “one hundred wise men are not enough to find the stone that the freak threw in the well”

You threw the stone .. you find it.